Global Security & Defense Watch · October 8, 2026
Boeing now holds both U.S. sixth-generation fighter programs and a fresh F-15EX order, but its defense segment is still losing money. The test is execution.
Core Research Question
Can defense become a larger strategic growth engine for Boeing?
1. What Changed: Boeing Wins Both Sixth-Generation Fighters
On September 29, the Navy awarded Boeing a full-scale development contract worth more than $20 billion for the F/A-XX, its first sixth-generation carrier fighter. The same day, Boeing won a separate $2.4 billion contract for more F-15EX fighters. With the Air Force's F-47 awarded in March 2025, Boeing now holds the development rights to both U.S. sixth-generation fighters, which Axios, citing analysts, described as a "clean sweep."
This is a contract story first and a financial story second. It changes who will build America's next fighters, but Boeing's defense segment is still working through losses on older fixed-price programs, and neither new aircraft is in production. The question for this edition: can defense become a larger strategic growth engine for Boeing?
The CODEW angle: Read this through the series lens. What changed: a Navy development award and a fighter order. Who benefits: Boeing and its suppliers. Who loses: Northrop Grumman. The test: execution.
2. F/A-XX: A Development Win, Not a Production Win
The F/A-XX contract covers full-scale development, including multiple test aircraft for ground, airworthiness, systems and weapons-integration testing. It does not cover series production, and the Navy has not said how many it intends to buy. Boeing declined to say how many aircraft are due, what variants it will build or when, and did not release specifications. The aircraft is meant to augment and eventually replace F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers from the 2030s, and to operate alongside Lockheed Martin's F-35C and Collaborative Combat Aircraft.
Boeing won over Northrop Grumman, which Reuters reports offered a clean-sheet design. Boeing pitched a carrier version of its F-47, arguing that one contractor on both programs would save cost and share technology. Boeing shares rose about 3% in premarket trading the next day, and Northrop's fell about 3.5%. Northrop could still protest, though protests against major classified aircraft awards have rarely succeeded, according to Breaking Defense as relayed by one aviation outlet.
The Navy's stated design emphasis is open mission systems architecture for interoperability with crewed and uncrewed aircraft.
The CODEW angle: Boeing has secured the program's development phase and exclusivity, but its value depends on how many aircraft the Navy ultimately buys and at what price, both undisclosed.
3. F-47: The Anchor Program and Its Schedule
The Air Force chose Boeing for the F-47 engineering and manufacturing development contract in March 2025. The service has said the first flight is targeted for 2028, with the program planning at least 185 aircraft, and that manufacturing of the first aircraft began in 2025. Boeing has spent heavily on a new St. Louis assembly facility, reported at about $1.8 billion, with parts of it opening in 2026 and the full project completing around 2030.
Schedule is the central risk. Trade reporting describes the 2028 first flight as ambitious, citing dependencies such as a next-generation engine facing funding and schedule pressure. The Navy aircraft is intended to share common features with the F-47, such as stealth, but little authoritative information about either has been released.
The CODEW angle: The F-47 is the proof point for both programs. A first flight on schedule would strengthen the F/A-XX case, and slips would affect both at once, which is the concentration risk of a monopoly on sixth-generation fighters.
4. F-15EX: Near-Term Revenue From a Proven Line
Boeing's $2.4 billion F-15EX award means 120 F-15EX fighters are now under contract for the Air Force, according to Axios. Unlike the new fighters, the F-15EX is in production, so it supports the St. Louis workforce and supplier base while the sixth-generation programs mature. In the second quarter, Boeing delivered three F-15s and three F/A-18s, reflecting the modest scale of current fighter output.
The CODEW angle: The F-15EX gives Boeing nearer-term production revenue than either new program, and keeps the St. Louis line busy while the F-47 and F/A-XX facilities are built.
5. The Financial Reality: Backlog Up, Margins Not Yet
Boeing's Defense, Space & Security segment reported second-quarter revenue of $7.5 billion, up 13%, but an operating margin of negative 0.2%, a $15 million operating loss. The results included $280 million of losses on the VC-25B presidential aircraft program, attributed mainly to added investment in production and certification resources. First VC-25B delivery is still expected in 2028. Segment backlog was $85.2 billion, 27% from international customers, compared with $84.8 billion a year earlier. The F/A-XX award came after quarter-end, so it is not in that figure.
Axios noted that Boeing has taken lumps on the VC-25B, the KC-46 tanker and the T-7 trainer, and one outlet notes that fixed-price development deals have cost Boeing billions before. The F/A-XX contract structure, which the Pentagon has not detailed in the material we reviewed, will matter as much as its headline value.
The CODEW angle: The backlog story is improving; the margin story is not yet. Investors and the Navy will now watch whether Boeing can deliver development programs without further charges.
6. Boeing vs. Lockheed Martin: Different Growth Engines
Lockheed Martin's recent growth comes from missile-defense production contracts, while Boeing's comes from next-generation aircraft development. The two are not direct substitutes, but they show how each is positioned:
| Next-generation fighters | F-47 (Air Force, March 2025) and F/A-XX (Navy, September 2026); Lockheed has neither, though its F-35C will fly alongside F/A-XX. |
| Contract stage | Boeing: development contracts, production still ahead. Lockheed: multiyear production, including PAC-3 MSE ($58.62B total) and THAAD ($35B, seven years). |
| Contract structure | Lockheed's PAC-3 award is a seven-year undefined action for up to $53.86B, so terms are still to be finalized. |
| Capacity investment | Boeing: new St. Louis fighter facilities. Lockheed: $8 to $9B through 2030 across 20+ facilities, tripling PAC-3 capacity by 2030. |
| Main risk | Boeing: development execution and fixed-price exposure. Lockheed: ramping munitions production and supply chain. |
The CODEW angle: Lockheed's model is volume production on a ramp; Boeing's is a long development bet on future aircraft. A follow-up edition will examine Lockheed's missile-defense backlog in depth.
7. The Four-Question Read
This series applies the same four questions to every development:
| What changed? | Boeing won F/A-XX development (more than $20B) and a $2.4B F-15EX order on September 29, adding to the F-47. |
| Who benefits? | Boeing and its St. Louis supplier base; Navy carrier aviation; engine and mission-system suppliers. Northrop Grumman is the loser in the competition. |
| What technology is moving into defense? | Open mission systems architecture, crewed-uncrewed teaming with Collaborative Combat Aircraft, and classified digital design and manufacturing. |
| What does it mean for the industry? | Fighter development consolidates around one prime, raising execution and concentration risk, while growth at Lockheed shifts to munitions and missile defense. |
The CODEW angle: A single prime on both sixth-generation fighters concentrates the U.S. fighter industrial base, which strengthens commonality and increases the cost of any failure.
The CODEW Angle
Can defense become a larger strategic growth engine for Boeing? Strategically, it already has. Financially, it has not yet.
Winning both sixth-generation fighters gives Boeing multi-decade positions and a defense backlog that should grow when the F/A-XX is booked. But the segment lost money in the second quarter, and the programs that will define its next decade are still in development.
As CSIS's Jerry McGinn told Axios, the good news is a real focus on building capacity, and now "they've got to be able to execute." That, not the award, is the measure to watch. Global Security & Defense Watch is not primarily about wars; it is about the technology, companies, contracts, and industrial infrastructure behind national security.
Sources
→ Axios: A "clean sweep" for Boeing in next-gen Navy and Air Force fighters
→ CNBC: Boeing secures U.S. Navy deal to develop next-generation fighter jet
→ Stars and Stripes (Reuters): Navy awards $20 billion contract for sixth-generation fighter jet
→ Quartz: Boeing wins $20 billion Navy contract for F/A-XX fighter jet
→ Military & Aerospace Electronics: Boeing wins $20 billion-plus F/A-XX development contract
→ Migflug: Boeing wins F/A-XX, Navy sixth-gen fighter contract explained (secondary)
→ Boeing: Second quarter 2026 results
→ Airforce Technology: Boeing defence Q2 2026 results
→ The War Zone: Full F-47 production line "not too far away"
→ The Aviationist: First Boeing F-47 in production, first flight by 2028
→ Lockheed Martin: $58.62B for multiyear PAC-3 MSE production
The CODEW Stat
$20B+ F/A-XX development · $2.4B F-15EX · 2 of 2 U.S. sixth-gen fighters · $85.2B defense backlog · (0.2)% Q2 defense margin
Contract values are as announced by the Pentagon and reported by the press; margin and backlog are from Boeing's Q2 2026 results.
Editorial Note
Global Security & Defense Watch tracks the global defense industry and the technology infrastructure behind national security: companies, government contracts, defense technology, procurement, capital and industrial capacity. It is not a geopolitical or conflict-news feed.
This edition draws on Department of War and Navy announcements, company filings and releases, and trade and financial press as of October 8, 2026.
Educational content only. Not investment advice. Contract values are as announced; many program details are classified, and several figures come from secondary reporting. Market reactions are reported moves, not forecasts. Claims about program performance have not been independently verified by The CODEW.
Reviewed by Erwin Castro
on
Thursday, October 08, 2026
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