The New Space Economy: From Launch Infrastructure to Defense Satellites

The Executive Intelligence Series · Special Report | September 20, 2026

The space economy is entering its most consequential decade. What was once a government-dominated domain defined by national prestige has become a commercial-industrial complex where private capital, defense procurement, and orbital infrastructure converge. This Special Report examines how launch infrastructure, satellite networks, space-based defense, and private investment are reshaping the space economy.

Executive Overview

The global space economy was valued at approximately $439 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $851.8 billion by 2035, expanding at roughly 7% annually. Other estimates place the 2026 market at $626.8 billion, heading toward $1.42 trillion by 2036.

The growth is not uniform. Launch infrastructure is consolidating around a single dominant operator. Satellite constellations are fragmenting across competing networks. Defense spending is accelerating faster than any other segment. And a new category — orbital compute and AI infrastructure — is emerging as the next frontier of competition.

Space Economy Snapshot

Metric	2025	2026	2035 Projection
Global Space Economy	$439B	$462–627B	$852B
Satellite Broadband Subscribers	~5M	Growing	50M+ (est.)
Space Force Budget Request	$29.4B	$71B	—
Private Space Investment (H1)	$22B	$338B	—
Orbital Launch Attempts	263+	300+ (est.)	—

The CODEW Lens: The space economy is not one market. It is four markets layered on top of each other: launch, communications, sensing, and defense. The companies that control the launch layer control the pace of everything above it.

Commercial Launch Infrastructure: The Bottleneck That Controls Everything

Launch is the foundational layer of the space economy. Without reliable, affordable access to orbit, no satellite constellation, no Earth observation network, and no defense architecture can scale. And launch capacity is the single most concentrated market in the entire space economy.

SpaceX flew 134 Falcon orbital missions in 2024, up from 96 in 2023 and 61 in 2022. In the first half of 2026 alone, the company completed 78 launches and delivered 1,041 tons of mass to orbit — primarily for internal Starlink missions. At least seven spacecraft companies have been told that Falcon 9 is fully booked for all mission types until 2028 or 2029.

This is a structural constraint. SpaceX is the only launch provider with the cadence, reliability, and cost structure to support the mega-constellations that define the current phase of the space economy. ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and Firefly together accounted for fewer than 25 US orbital attempts in 2024.

The competitive dynamics are shifting, but slowly. Blue Origin successfully reused a New Glenn booster for the first time in April 2026. The rocket can lift up to 45,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit. But the upper stage failed to place its payload into the correct orbit, highlighting the gap between booster recovery and full operational reliability.

Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket has slipped repeatedly. The company now targets delivery to the pad in Q4 2026, with the inaugural launch potentially slipping into 2027. China achieved its first controlled recovery of an orbital-class rocket booster in July 2026 with the Long March-10B, which has a reusable payload capacity of 16 tonnes to low Earth orbit.

Operator	2024 Flights	Reusable	Payload to LEO
SpaceX (Falcon)	134	Yes (booster)	22.8t (Falcon 9)
China (CASC + commercial)	68	Partial	16t (reusable)
Blue Origin (New Glenn)	—	Yes (booster)	45t
Rocket Lab (Electron/Neutron)	14	Neutron (pending)	13t (Neutron)
ULA (Atlas/Delta/Vulcan)	5	No	27t (Vulcan)

The CODEW Lens: SpaceX is not just the market leader in launch. It is the market maker. When Falcon 9 is booked through 2029, every constellation operator building a competing network is dependent on the bottleneck that SpaceX controls. That is not a competitive dynamic. It is a dependency.

Satellite Constellations: Starlink's Lead and the Race to Catch Up

Starlink has deployed more than 10,000 satellites and generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 — 60% of SpaceX's total revenue. The constellation accounts for roughly two-thirds of all satellites currently in orbit. The connectivity division generated EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins in the 60% range in 2025.

SpaceX is targeting a $100 billion revenue run-rate by December 2026, driven by Starlink, launch services, and AI investments. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, a 92% increase year over year.

But Starlink's dominance is being challenged on multiple fronts:

Amazon Leo has approximately 390 satellites in orbit and is deploying its first-generation broadband system. The company filed with the FCC in July 2026 to deploy up to 5,105 additional satellites for direct-to-device voice and data connectivity, with deployment beginning in 2028. Amazon acquired Globalstar for more than $11 billion in April 2026, primarily as a spectrum play to support direct-to-device services.

Telesat is reformatting its Lightspeed constellation of 156 satellites, dedicating approximately a quarter of the constellation to military customers. The military cluster, called Mil-Ka, will add 500 MHz in the Ka-band and increase constellation costs by $255 million. Lightspeed is scheduled to enter service in Q1 2028.

SES is developing a Medium Earth Orbit constellation called meoSphere, ordering 28 satellites from K2 Space. Test satellites will launch over the next three years, with service targeted for 2030.

The competitive dynamic is unusual. Starlink's lead in LEO broadband is measured in years and thousands of satellites. But the next phase of competition is not about broadband. It is about direct-to-device connectivity, where Starlink, Amazon Leo, AST SpaceMobile, and Lynk Global are competing to connect unmodified smartphones directly to satellites. Amazon Leo has signed partnerships with over 60 mobile network operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers.

The CODEW Lens: Starlink won the broadband race. But the next race — direct-to-device — is just beginning. The winner will not be the company with the most satellites. It will be the company with the most spectrum, the most MNO partnerships, and the most regulatory approvals.

Defense and Intelligence Satellites: The Fastest-Growing Segment

Government and defense procurement is the primary driver of the space economy, and it is accelerating faster than any commercial segment. The U.S. Space Force requested a $71 billion budget for fiscal 2027, up from $29.4 billion in fiscal 2025. The service has budgeted upwards of 100 national security space launches over the next five years.

Golden Dome: The $185 Billion Missile Defense Program

The most ambitious defense space program since the Strategic Defense Initiative, Golden Dome is a space-based missile defense architecture with a $185 billion total budget. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that space-based components alone could cost $542 billion over 20 years.

The Pentagon has allocated $3.2 billion to develop prototypes of weaponized satellites designed to destroy incoming missiles from space. Twelve companies — including SpaceX, Anduril, and Lockheed Martin — received prototype contracts in April 2026.

Golden Dome Milestone Schedule:

Ground test: End of 2026
First orbital flight demos: 2027
Second flight tests: 2028
Detect and destroy test target: 2029
Procurement begins: 2030

Space Development Agency: The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture

The Space Development Agency is building the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) — a mesh network of satellites in low Earth orbit designed to provide missile tracking, data transport, and beyond-line-of-sight targeting. More than 60 Tranche 1 data transport satellites are now on orbit, with the full constellation planned at 154 operational space vehicles.

SpaceX's Defense Contracts

In May 2026, the Space Force awarded SpaceX $4.16 billion to build a constellation of satellites able to track and sense airborne moving targets (SB-AMTI program) and $2.29 billion to deliver a proliferated low-Earth orbit constellation for the Space Data Network Backbone.

The CODEW Lens: Defense is not a segment of the space economy. It is the segment that sets the pace. Golden Dome, PWSA, and SB-AMTI are not incremental programs. They are the largest space infrastructure investments since Apollo — and they are being built by a mix of traditional defense primes and commercial space companies.

Space-Based Communications: Direct-to-Device and the Spectrum Race

Space-based communications is transitioning from a niche backup to a primary connectivity layer. The key shift is direct-to-device (D2D) — using satellites to connect unmodified smartphones without a dedicated satellite terminal.

Amazon Leo's proposed 5,105-satellite constellation would use Globalstar's mobile satellite spectrum to provide voice, data, messaging, and emergency services directly to mobile devices. The service would partner with mobile network operators globally and is targeting deployment beginning in 2028. Amazon Leo has approximately 390 satellites in orbit for its broadband system.

SpaceX is expanding Starlink to support D2D services using hybrid MSS and terrestrial mobile spectrum. The company has said it will use Starship to launch up to 1 million solar-powered satellites engineered as orbital AI data centers — a vision that would require an entirely new scale of launch capacity.

The global D2D market remains early. Adoption is concentrated in geographically large countries with dispersed populations — the U.S., Australia, Russia, and Canada — where extending fiber or cable networks to remote areas is uneconomic. Satellite broadband remains a secondary access technology rather than a leading connection method in any country, with Qatar having the highest penetration rate at roughly 6%.

The CODEW Lens: Direct-to-device is the next spectrum war. The companies that secure MNO partnerships and MSS spectrum licenses first will control the layer that connects the next billion devices. Amazon's Globalstar acquisition was not a satellite deal. It was a spectrum deal.

Earth Observation: The Battle for Orbital Intelligence

Earth observation is the most commercially mature segment of the space economy, but it is also the most fragmented. Two companies dominate the commercial market: Planet Labs and Maxar Technologies (now split into Vantor and Lanteris SLantharpstems).

Planet Labs operates the world's largest commercial Earth-imaging constellation, with 200+ active satellites providing daily global coverage at 3–5 meter resolution (PlanetScope) and 50 cm resolution on demand (SkySat). The company generated approximately $220 million in FY2025 revenue, with Defense & Intelligence contributing $180 million — a 50% year-over-year increase.

Maxar (Vantor) operates a smaller fleet of high-resolution satellites delivering sub-30 cm native resolution imagery, and remains the primary supplier of high-resolution satellite imagery to the U.S. government under contracts with the NGA and NRO.

The competitive dynamic is defined by two opposing strategies. Planet prioritizes temporal frequency — the ability to detect change anywhere on Earth every day — over raw resolution. Maxar prioritizes resolution — the ability to see the finest details — over revisit rate. The satellite imagery market is projected to reach $12.7 billion by 2032, growing at 17.5% CAGa R from 2026.

The CODEW Lens: Earth observation is not a single market. It is two markets — frequency and resolution — with different customers and different economics. The companies that win will be the ones that can deliver both, or the ones that own the government relationship.

Reusable Launch Technology: The Cost Curve That Reshapes Everything

Reusable launch is the single most important technological development in the space economy. SpaceX's Falcon 9 booster reuse — now routine after nearly a decade of operations — fundamentally changed launch economics by reducing the cost per kilogram to orbit. The company has crossed 350 cumulative Falcon 9 booster recoveries, with individual boosters flying more than 20 missions.

Starship represents the second curve. The Super Heavy booster catch on the Mechazilla tower in October 2024 demonstrated the architectural prerequisite for full and rapid reusability. SpaceX has stated that operational Starlink V3 deployment — which carries roughly 10 times the bandwidth per satellite of V2 Mini — requires Starship as the deployment vehicle.

Competitors are catching up, but slowly. Blue Origin reused a New Glenn booster for the first time in April 2026. China achieved its first controlled recovery of an orbital-class rocket booster in July 2026 with the Long March-10B. Rocket Lab's Neutron has slipped repeatedly and may not launch until 2027.

The CODEW Lens: Reusability is not a feature. It is the economic foundation of the entire space economy. Every dollar saved on launch is a dollar available for satellites, sensors, and constellations. SpaceX's decade-long head start in reuse is the single most durable competitive advantage in the industry.

Government and Defense Spending: The Demand Engine

Government procurement is the primary driver of the space economy, and defense spending is accelerating faster than any other segment. The Space Force's $71 billion budget request for fiscal 2027 reflects a structural shift: space is no longer a supporting domain. It is a warfighting domain.

Program	Value	Status
Golden Dome (total)	$185B	$3.2B prototypes awarded; ground tests 2026
Golden Dome (space-based CBO estimate)	$542B (20 yrs)	Early development
Next-Gen OPIR	$12.4B	First GEO launch Oct 2026
Evolved Strategic SATCOM	$11.6B	Boeing-led development
SB-AMTI (SpaceX)	$4.16B	Fielding by 2028
Space Data Network Backbone (SpaceX)	$2.29B	Proliferated LEO constellation
Tranche 3 missile defense tracking	$1.75B	36 satellites

The Space Force has budgeted upwards of 100 national security space launches over the next five years, with its two main launch bases expected to support as many as 300 launches. International demand is also rising. Canada's Telesat is dedicating a quarter of its Lightspeed constellation to military customers. India's government is actively pursuing contracts with private space companies and working to simplify regulations for foreign direct investment in domestic space startups.

The CODEW Lens: Government spending is not a subsidy for the space industry. It is the anchor customer that makes commercial constellations viable. Starlink, Amazon Leo, and every other constellation operator depends on defense and government contracts to underwrite the capital intensity of their buildouts.

Private Capital and Space Startups: The Investment Cycle

Private capital is flowing into space at record levels. The broader space technology market recorded $338 billion in investment across 193 transactions in the first half of 2026, compared with just under $22 billion across 133 transactions in the first half of 2025. SpaceX's IPO accounted for $86 billion of the $146 billion in U.S. IPO common stock offerings during the period.

Company	Raise	Valuation	Focus
K2 Space	$500M	$6.8B	High-power satellites for commercial and defense
The Exploration Company	$300M+	$2B+	Reusable space capsules
Star Catcher	$65M	—	On-orbit power beaming
NewOrbit	$18.5M	—	Very low Earth orbit satellites
Outlier Space	$10.5M	—	Reusable payload capsules
Orbital	$5M	—	AI data centers in low Earth orbit

K2 Space, founded by former SpaceX engineers, builds low-cost, high-power satellites for commercial and defense customers, including the U.S. Space Force, and has more than $1 billion in signed contracts. SpaceX went public in June 2026, and its IPO has become a turning point for the entire space industry.

The CODEW Lens: The first wave of space investment was about launch. The second wave was about broadband. The third wave — the one we are in now — is about what happens in orbit after the satellites are deployed. Data, analytics, compute, and defense services.

Space M&A and Strategic Partnerships: Consolidation Accelerates

Space M&A activity accelerated sharply in 2026, driven by SpaceX's IPO, large-scale consolidation, and expanding interest in satellite broadband, Earth observation, and orbital computing.

Acquirer	Target	Value	Rationale
Amazon	Globalstar	$11B+	Spectrum for direct-to-device services
Rocket Lab	Iridium	$8B	Launch + mobile satellite network integration
Voyager Technologies	Astrobotic	Up to $300M	Lunar landing capability
Firefly Aerospace	Space-ng	Undisclosed	AI-powered vision navigation for spacecraft
EQT	Exolaunch	Undisclosed	Satellite launch integration services
Astrum Space (SPAC)	Black Spade III	~$1B	Satellite-to-device network for Asia-Pacific

The Amazon-Globalstar deal was largely a spectrum play, intended to bring Globalstar's mobile satellite-service spectrum licenses into Amazon's satellite network and support direct-to-device services beginning in 2028. The Rocket Lab-Iridium deal combines Rocket Lab's launch business with Iridium's mobile satellite network, positioning the combined company as an integrated space services provider.

The CODEW Lens: The M&A wave is not about acquiring companies. It is about acquiring capabilities. Spectrum, launch integration, AI navigation, lunar landing — each deal fills a gap in a vertically integrated space services stack.

The Convergence of Commercial Space and National Security

The most significant structural shift in the space economy is the convergence of commercial and defense space. The boundary between commercial satellite operators and defense contractors is dissolving.

SpaceX, a commercial launch company, is now a major defense contractor with $6.45 billion in Space Force contracts awarded in a single week for missile tracking and military communications. Amazon's Globalstar acquisition, ostensibly a commercial spectrum play, directly supports military and emergency services connectivity. Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium combines commercial launch with a mobile satellite network that serves both commercial and government customers.

The United States has deployed on-orbit space control weapons, and the Space Force's mission has expanded from supporting military operations to contesting and controlling the space domain. Russia and China have warned of an arms race in space, and the deployment of space-based weapons has drawn criticism for undermining the 1967 Outer Space Treaty framework.

But the convergence also creates opportunities. Commercial space companies that can serve both commercial and defense customers have a structural advantage: they can amortize capital costs across a broader customer base, reduce dependence on any single revenue stream, and build infrastructure that serves both markets.

The CODEW Lens: The convergence of commercial and defense space is not a policy choice. It is an economic inevitability. The capital intensity of space infrastructure requires both commercial and government demand to be viable. The companies that serve both will define the next phase of the space economy.

The Strategic Question: Who Will Control the Critical Infrastructure?

The space economy is not a single market. It is a layered stack of infrastructure — launch, communications, sensing, compute, and defense — where each layer depends on the one below it. The strategic question is which companies will control the critical infrastructure at each layer.

Launch. SpaceX controls the launch layer with a near-monopoly on cadence and cost. Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and China's state providers are the only credible challengers. The company that controls launch controls the pace of everything above it.

Communications. Starlink controls the broadband layer with 10,000+ satellites and 60% EBITDA margins. Amazon Leo, Telesat, and SES are building competing constellations, but none has Starlink's scale. The next battle is direct-to-device, where spectrum and MNO partnerships matter more than satellite count.

Sensing. Planet Labs and Maxar control the Earth observation layer, but the market is fragmenting. The companies that win will be the ones that can deliver both frequency and resolution — or the ones that own the government relationship.

Compute. Orbital compute is the newest layer. SpaceX, Blue Origin, and a wave of startups are exploring space-based AI data centers. The company that can provide compute in orbit will capture a new category of demand that does not exist on the ground.

Defense. The defense layer is the fastest-growing and the most concentrated. Golden Dome, PWSA, and SB-AMTI are creating a new class of space infrastructure that did not exist five years ago. The companies that win these contracts will have a durable advantage for decades.

The CODEW Lens: The space economy is not a race to orbit. It is a race to control the infrastructure that makes orbit useful. Launch, spectrum, compute, and defense — these are the four layers that matter. The companies that own them will own the next space economy.

The CODEW Takeaway

The new space economy is not an extension of the old one. It is a different industry with different economics, different competitors, and different rules. The old space economy was government-led, cost-plus, and defined by national prestige. The new space economy is commercially-driven, capital-intensive, and defined by the convergence of commercial and defense demand.

First, launch is the bottleneck. SpaceX's control of launch capacity — with Falcon 9 booked through 2029 — gives it leverage over every constellation operator that needs to deploy satellites. The company that controls launch controls the pace of the entire space economy.

Second, defense is the demand engine. The Space Force's $71 billion budget and programs like Golden Dome, PWSA, and SB-AMTI are creating a new class of space infrastructure that commercial markets alone cannot support. The companies that win these contracts will have a durable advantage.

Third, the next phase of competition is about what happens in orbit. Broadband is maturing. The growth is in direct-to-device connectivity, Earth observation analytics, orbital compute, and defense services. The companies that capture these layers will define the next decade of the space economy.

The CODEW verdict: The space economy will not be dominated by a single company. SpaceX will remain the most important player, but it will not control every layer. The companies that win will be the ones that control the critical infrastructure at the layer where they compete — whether that is launch, spectrum, sensing, compute, or defense. The infrastructure is being built now. The companies that own it will own the next space economy.

The CODEW Lens: The space economy is not about going to space. It is about what happens when space becomes infrastructure. And infrastructure is always controlled by the companies that build it first.

The New Space Economy Glossary

LEO (Low Earth Orbit) — Orbits between approximately 160 km and 2,000 km altitude. Lower latency, higher bandwidth, but shorter satellite lifespan.

D2D (Direct-to-Device) — Satellite connectivity that connects directly to unmodified smartphones without a dedicated terminal.

Reusable Launch — Rocket systems where the booster or other stages are recovered and flown again, reducing cost per launch.

Golden Dome — A U.S. space-based missile defense program with a $185 billion budget, including space-based interceptors designed to destroy incoming missiles from orbit.

PWSA (Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture) — The Space Development Agency's mesh network of LEO satellites providing missile tracking, data transport, and beyond-line-of-sight targeting.

SB-AMTI (Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator) — A Space Force program to track and sense airborne moving targets from space, with a $4.16 billion SpaceX contract.

MSS (Mobile Satellite Service) — Spectrum allocated for satellite communications with mobile devices.

Spectrum — Radio frequencies allocated for satellite communications. Spectrum licenses are among the most valuable assets in the space economy.

EBITDA Margin — Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, expressed as a percentage of revenue.

Orbital Compute — Computing infrastructure — including AI data centers — deployed in orbit rather than on the ground.

FAQ

Q: Why is launch capacity the bottleneck in the space economy?

SpaceX controls the launch market with a near-monopoly on cadence and cost. Falcon 9 is booked through 2028–2029 for many mission types. Every constellation operator building a competing network depends on launch capacity that SpaceX controls. The company that controls launch controls the pace of everything above it.

Q: What is Golden Dome and why does it matter?

Golden Dome is a $185 billion U.S. space-based missile defense program — the most ambitious since the Strategic Defense Initiative. It includes space-based interceptors designed to destroy incoming missiles from orbit. The Congressional Budget Office estimates space-based components alone could cost $542 billion over 20 years.

Q: How does Starlink compare to Amazon Leo?

Starlink has deployed more than 10,000 satellites and generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. Amazon Leo has approximately 390 satellites in orbit and is deploying its first-generation broadband system, with a proposed 5,105-satellite D2D constellation planned for 2028. Starlink's lead is measured in years and thousands of satellites.

Q: What is the difference between Planet Labs and Maxar?

Planet Labs operates 200+ small satellites providing daily global coverage at 3–5 meter resolution. Maxar (now Vantor) operates a smaller fleet of high-resolution satellites delivering sub-30 cm imagery. Planet prioritizes frequency — detecting change every day — while Maxar prioritizes resolution — seeing the finest details.

Q: Why is the convergence of commercial and defense space important?

Commercial space companies like SpaceX, Amazon, and Rocket Lab are now major defense contractors. This convergence allows companies to amortize capital costs across commercial and government customers, making space infrastructure more financially viable. It also means that defense demand is the anchor customer for commercial constellations.

The CODEW Stat

$185B Golden Dome · 10,000+ Starlink satellites · $338B H1 investment The Golden Dome missile defense program carries a $185 billion budget. Starlink has deployed more than 10,000 satellites and generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. And space technology investment reached $338 billion across 193 transactions in the first half of 2026. The space economy is not a niche market. It is the infrastructure layer of the next industrial era — and it is being built now.

The CODEW