Semiconductor Watch · October 9, 2026
Samsung's record memory profit, a U.S. interposer deal for TSMC, ASML's Hyper NA roadmap, and TSMC's record sales show the AI chip race moving beyond chip design.
Core Research Question
Which layers of the AI semiconductor supply chain, beyond chip design, are capturing the profit and setting the constraints?
1. The Semiconductor Race Is Expanding Beyond Chip Design
This week's four developments sit in different layers of the AI supply chain: memory, advanced packaging, lithography, and the foundry that ties them together. Samsung posted a record profit on AI memory, GlobalFoundries signed a $2 billion deal to make packaging components for TSMC in the United States, ASML and ZEISS sketched what comes after today's most advanced chipmaking machine, and TSMC reported record quarterly sales.
Figures are reported through October 8. The common thread is that value and constraints are spreading across the stack, so the question for each story is not only what happened but which bottleneck it relieves or reveals.
The CODEW angle: Memory, advanced packaging, and manufacturing equipment are becoming decisive parts of the AI infrastructure supply chain, alongside chip design.
2. Samsung's AI Memory Boom Puts Memory at the Center of the Profit Pool
On October 8, Samsung Electronics guided to preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won (about $80 billion), the first time a South Korean company has cleared 100 trillion won in a quarter and its fourth straight record. Revenue rose about 127% to 195 trillion won, and profit was roughly nine times the 12.2 trillion won of a year earlier. Operating profit edged past the 106.1 trillion won LSEG consensus, while revenue came in below one estimate of about 201 trillion won, and Samsung's shares fell after the release, according to market coverage.
These are preliminary figures with no divisional breakdown, which Samsung will publish later this month. Analysts attribute the profit to tight DRAM, NAND and HBM supply, and one analyst cited by Reuters estimates Samsung's HBM bit shipments rose about 50% from the second quarter. AI Weekly reports HBM4 is expected to rise from about 40% to 80% of Samsung's HBM revenue next year, a projection we could not verify against company materials.
By our arithmetic, Samsung's quarterly operating profit alone is several times TSMC's expected quarterly net profit of about NT$741 billion (roughly $23 billion), though operating and net profit are not like-for-like comparisons.
The CODEW angle: The AI buildout is channeling an unusually large share of profit to memory, and the economics now depend on how long supply stays tight. Capacity expansions at the major memory makers take years, which is why the pricing power is persistent.
3. GlobalFoundries and TSMC: A U.S. Source for CoWoS Interposers
On October 8, GlobalFoundries announced a five-year, $2 billion manufacturing agreement with TSMC to supply silicon interposers for TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging ecosystem, produced at GF's Malta, New York fab. It would be the first U.S. source of silicon interposers, including variants with embedded deep trench capacitors. GF says volume production will begin ramping in the first half of 2028, and the agreement provides a framework for expanding capacity. Terms are as stated by GF; TSMC's own statement was not available in the material we reviewed.
The deal moves one layer of AI packaging onto U.S. soil without TSMC building it. An interposer is a thin silicon layer with vertical connections that carries signals between a processor and its memory stacks. Press coverage says Apple is expected to be the first customer, with Amkor packaging TSMC-made chips in Arizona, though that detail comes from secondary reporting. GF has also pursued a $300 million U.S. Commerce Department silicon photonics award (letter of intent in July).
The CODEW angle: Packaging, not wafer fabrication, has become a binding constraint for AI chips. TSMC gets a second manufacturing source, GF gets a long-term anchor customer, and U.S. customers get a shorter supply chain, although 2028 is still two years away.
4. ASML and ZEISS Sketch "Hyper NA," the Successor to High NA
ASML and Carl Zeiss engineers published a peer-reviewed paper in the October issue of the Journal of Micro/Nanopatterning, Materials and Metrology describing a lithography system with a numerical aperture of at least 0.75, versus 0.55 for today's High NA EUV tools. Reuters reports it could print features as small as 5 nanometers, more than a third smaller than High NA, and might be ready in about a decade. The authors say the design reuses much of the current EUV architecture, that Zeiss already has mirrors precise enough for it, and that the machine would be only slightly larger than High NA systems. They also note that going beyond Hyper NA would probably require shorter wavelengths.
The caveat is commitment: ASML has begun developing Hyper NA but has not committed to producing it. The paper matters for competitors. Reuters ties it to U.S. startups such as xLight, working on free-electron-laser light sources, and Substrate, pursuing X-ray lithography. Meanwhile, near-term adoption is of High NA itself: in September, TSMC committed to using ASML's High NA machines, joining Samsung.
The CODEW angle: This is a signal that ASML intends to extend its lithography monopoly, and a reminder that equipment roadmaps run on decade timescales. Today's capital spending decisions are about High NA, not Hyper NA.
5. TSMC's Record Sales Put AI Chip Demand Under the Microscope
TSMC reported record third-quarter revenue of NT$1.49 trillion (about $46.7 billion), up 50% from NT$990 billion a year earlier. That beat the NT$1.46 trillion LSEG SmartEstimate by roughly 2% and topped the $44.6 to $45.8 billion range TSMC gave in July. September revenue was NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year on year but down 0.6% from August, and CNBC corrected its report to say September was not a record month on its own. Nine-month revenue is NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1%. Taiwan coverage attributes the strength to AI demand plus inventory building ahead of new smartphone launches, so not all of the quarter is AI accelerators. (Note that "T$" in some reports means New Taiwan dollars.)
The expectations bar is high. TSMC's Taipei shares fell 1.35% before the release, and the revenue statement carried no new guidance. Full results arrive October 15, when LSEG analysts expect net profit up 64% to NT$740.8 billion. Three items will matter more than the headline. First, gross margin: TSMC guided 65% to 67% for the quarter versus 67.7% in the second quarter, with 2nm ramp-up and overseas expansion weighing on margins. Second, the fourth-quarter outlook, after TSMC raised its 2026 growth view to slightly above 40% in July. Third, capital expenditure, which TSMC raised to $60 to $64 billion in July, with 70% to 80% for leading-edge processes and 10% to 20% for packaging, testing and masks, and which management said would be even higher over the next three years.
Monthly revenue is the earliest read on whether demand is steady, but it is volatile, so the trend over several months matters more than any single report.
The CODEW angle: Strong sales confirm current demand. The next question is how much translates into durable earnings after margin pressure, and how much capacity investment follows, since each dollar of capex also becomes a supplier's order.
6. The AI Supply-Chain Map
Four layers, four different constraints:
| Layer | This week | Who is affected |
| Memory | Record Samsung profit shows HBM, DRAM, and NAND pricing power; new supply arrives slowly. | Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and AI server builders are buying memory. |
| Advanced packaging | GF interposer deal adds a U.S. source for CoWoS parts from 2028. | TSMC, GF, Amkor, Apple, and other U.S.-based customers. |
| Lithography | Hyper-NA paper extends ASML's EUV roadmap by a decade; High NA adoption is the nearer decision. | ASML, Zeiss, TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and light-source startups. |
| Foundry | TSMC revenue up 50%; margin, guidance, and capex on October 15. | TSMC, Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and equipment suppliers. |
The CODEW angle: Competitive implications differ by layer. Memory makers hold pricing power, TSMC holds the packaging and leading-edge chokepoints, and ASML holds the long-range tool roadmap. Customers buying AI systems are exposed to all four.
The CODEW Angle
The semiconductor race is expanding beyond chip design. Memory, advanced packaging and manufacturing equipment are becoming decisive parts of the AI infrastructure supply chain.
Samsung's profit shows where scarcity is paying most, GlobalFoundries' deal shows where capacity is being added next, and ASML and ZEISS show how far ahead the equipment roadmap already reaches. TSMC's record quarter confirms the demand all three are responding to.
Investors are now asking for more than a beat: margins, capex, and guidance on October 15, followed by Samsung's detailed divisional results later this month.
Sources
→ Yahoo Finance: TSMC Q3 revenue tops its own guidance and the 19-analyst forecast
→ Reuters via MacDailyNews: TSMC posts record third-quarter revenue
→ CNBC: TSMC September sales surge year over year as AI drives chip demand (corrected)
→ TrendForce News: TSMC Q3 revenue beats forecasts at record NT$1.49 trillion
→ Bits&Chips: TSMC raises 2026 capex to as much as $64B
→ TrendForce News: TSMC after earnings call, brokerages see capex surge
→ CNBC: Samsung forecasts record third-quarter profit of $80 billion
→ Asia Business Daily: Samsung posts record operating profit of KRW 100 trillion
→ AI Weekly: Samsung Q3 profit clears 100 trillion won on AI memory boom (secondary)
→ Samsung Electronics: Third quarter 2025 results (year-earlier comparison)
→ GlobalFoundries release via HPCwire: GlobalFoundries and TSMC sign U.S. manufacturing deal
→ DatacenterDynamics: GlobalFoundries signs $2bn, five-year deal with TSMC
→ Hoodline: GlobalFoundries lands $2B TSMC deal (secondary)
→ Reuters: ASML, Zeiss say next-generation chipmaking technology may be ready in 10 years
→ Semiconductor Engineering: Hyper-NA EUV, the next extension beyond High NA lithography
The CODEW Stat
107.4T won Samsung Q3 profit · NT$1.49T TSMC Q3 revenue (+50%) · $2B GF-TSMC interposer deal · 0.75 NA Hyper NA, ~10 years out
Samsung figures are preliminary; TSMC figures are unaudited monthly revenue; the Hyper NA timeline is the engineers' estimate.
Editorial Note
Semiconductor Watch is the fast-moving intelligence layer tracking AI accelerators, HBM and memory, advanced packaging, foundries, lithography, semiconductor equipment and manufacturing capacity.
This edition draws on Reuters-based reporting, company announcements and trade press, with developments reported through October 8, 2026.
Educational content only. Not investment advice. Samsung figures are preliminary and unaudited; TSMC figures are monthly revenue reports and not full results; Hyper NA is a research roadmap and not a product commitment. Some figures come from secondary coverage of company statements and have not been independently verified by The CODEW.
Reviewed by Erwin Castro
on
Friday, October 09, 2026
Rating:
No comments: